Popular analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts a sharp decline for the leading altcoin based on historical data. Analyst Ekta Mourya predicts a deep correction for Ethereum’s rival Solana.
ETH price forecast: Altcoin regression model points to major crash!
Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen explains with his log regression model that every time Ethereum (ETH) breaks support against Bitcoin, the ETH/USD pair faces a 70% drop towards the lower logarithmic regression trendline. As of now, ETH is down 41%. Therefore, concerns are growing that a similar scenario will unfold this year. At the time of writing, the altcoin price was up 1.34% to $2,383. However, it fell more than 10% on its weekly chart.
Historically, these sharp declines occurred in Q4 2016 and Q4 2019. It now suggests that a similar pattern could emerge in Q4 2024. Some market players are optimistic about a potential ‘October’ rally. However, some analysts like Benjamin Cowen warn that it would be wise to consider downside risks as well. In an earlier post, Cowen said, “I think it will take a big drop to $1,200 before EOY. After that, it will jump to $2,025.”
This means that the altcoin price could be preparing for another 50% correction from current levels. Some market analysts have dismissed Cowen’s analysis, stating that it doesn’t apply during Bitcoin’s halving year. Responding to this, Cowen said, “In Q4 2016, ETH entered the regression band, the halving year. To be honest, this whole “But it’s a halving year!” argument is getting a little old. You could say the same thing when ETH was $4,000 and it still fell to $1,900.”
SOL price forecast: A drop of about 15% is in the cards!
Solana is hovering around $140 on Friday. The altcoin is down 12% this week. Moreover, from a technical perspective, another double-digit drop is likely. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on two different timeframes (daily and 4-hourly) shows the underlying negative momentum in SOL’s price trend. Since August, Solana has traded in a narrow range between $163 and $120. However, it is an outlier as on August 5, the altcoin price dropped to $110.
SOL is currently hovering near $140, the midpoint of the range. If SOL corrects further, it’s possible that the altcoin’s price could slide to the $120 low range (down about 15%) or draw liquidity back to the $110 low on August 5.
If Solana sees a daily candlestick close above Monday’s opening level of $158, the bearish thesis will be invalidated. In this case, the altcoin price is likely to rally towards the psychologically important $160 level. On the 4-hour SOL/USDT chart, Solana’s price maintains its medium-term uptrend. It could also find support at the Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $134.45 and $137.60 in case of a correction. On the flip side, if SOL closes above the 200-day EMA at $144.76, it would probably invalidate the bearish thesis. It is then possible for it to rise towards the resistance zone between $149.99 and $155.93, a zone of instability on the 4-hour chart.
The opinions and forecasts in the article are those of analysts and are not investment advice. As Kriptokoin.com, we strongly recommend that you do your own research before investing.
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