Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered says Bitcoin is gaining upward momentum. He also predicts that it will approach peak levels ahead of the US presidential elections. With three weeks to go before the US elections, the odds of Donald Trump winning are increasing, Kendrick said. He also notes significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased activity in Bitcoin call options.
A peak forecast for Bitcoin ahead of the US elections!
According to Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, Bitcoin is showing signs of momentum towards $73,800. Kendrick says this potential price rally is driven by a confluence of factors, including a steepening in the US Treasury yield curve, renewed market interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the increasing likelihood of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election. In this context, Kendrick explains:
For Bitcoin, the combined factors mean that a pre-election bleed towards its all-time high of $73,800 looks likely.
As you have been following on Kriptokoin.com, last Thursday’s US CPI data came in above expectations. In response to the steepening of the 2s10s yield curve, a shift triggered by this, BTC and other digital assets “finally started to rally,” Kendrick notes. The shift in the yield curve signals increased market volatility and the anticipation of potential interest rate hikes. In turn, this often increases demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
Election outlook and BTC’s price trajectory
Kendrick also notes that according to the Polymarket forecasting platform, Donald Trump’s chances of winning have increased to 56.3%. Meanwhile, the US elections are just three weeks away. The analyst emphasizes that this is an important factor that increases the upward momentum in Bitcoin. The probability of a Republican sweep, a scenario in which Trump wins and the Republican party controls both the Senate and the House, is 39%. “In conditional probability terms, if Trump wins, there is a 70% chance that the Republicans win the election. This could create favorable conditions for risky assets, including Bitcoin,” Kendrick said.
Kendrick also notes the recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. In addition, he says that increased activity in the derivatives market is driving Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. He emphasizes that these two indicators play a role as key factors. On the options front, the Standard Chartered analyst points to increased activity around BTC call options with a strike price of $80,000 expiring on December 27 on the Deribit crypto derivatives exchange. “Another 1,500 Bitcoins were added to the $80,000 call option last week,” he said. The analyst suggests that institutional investors are positioning for a significant upside move in the medium term.
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